According to @KobeissiLetter, Moody’s Analytics’ leading economic indicator estimates a 48% probability of a US recession within 12 months as of August, the highest since 2020 and a level Moody’s historical data indicate has not occurred outside recessions (source: Moody’s Analytics via @KobeissiLetter). @KobeissiLetter also notes that the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised non-farm payrolls down by 911,000 for the 12 months ending March 2025, the largest annual downward revision on record, underscoring labor market deterioration (source: BLS via @KobeissiLetter). For trading, the Federal Reserve’s Financial Stability Report highlights that rising recession risk and tighter financial conditions tend to widen risk premia and raise volatility across risk assets (source: Federal Reserve Financial Stability Report 2023), while the IMF has documented a post-2020 increase in Bitcoin and equity return correlations, heightening the transmission of macro shocks to crypto such as BTC and ETH (source: IMF, Crypto Prices Move More in Sync With Stocks, 2022). @KobeissiLetter further asks whether earlier Fed rate cuts could have prevented this deterioration without taking a position (source: @KobeissiLetter).